XRP price falls near critical support level as Bitcoin and crypto market correct

XRP price corrects as investors book profits and hope for a spot XRP ETF crumbles.

XRP (XRP) price has dropped 10% in January as investors book profits and broader bearish sentiment takes over the cryptocurrency market.

XRP price now appears primed for further losses in the short term, primarily due to a classic bearish pattern.

XRP price trades below a bearish triangle

On Jan. 3, XRP broke below the support line of a descending triangle at $0.5934, risking a 17% correction.

Now, XRP has been trading sideways below the technical chart pattern, and this bearish pattern forms when the price consolidates inside a triangle defined by a series of lower highs and relatively equal lows.

A descending triangle is resolved after the price breaks below its support line, accompanied by a rise in trading volumes. The pattern’s breakout target is obtained by adding the height of the triangle (the thickest part of the triangle) to the breakout point on the downside.

In the case of XRP, the chart pattern was resolved on Jan. 3 as the price dropped to $0.5048, its lowest level since Oct. 19, 2023.

Attempts to lift XRP were frustrated by supplier congestion from the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $0.5934. On Jan. 17, the token lost yet another crucial support level provided by the 200-day EMA at $0.5717.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator moved within the negative region below the neutral line. This suggested that the market conditions still favored the downside.

As such, if the sell-off continues, a bearish target of $0.4971 could be seen for XRP, down around 19% from the current levels.

XRP supply in profit at historical levels

The bearish outlook for XRP could be attributed to profit-booking by sellers. Data from market intelligence firm Santiment shows that Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and XRP are currently exhibiting historically high-risk profit levels.

The firm posted the following chart on the X social platform, saying:

“#Bitcoin (83%), #Ethereum (84%), and #XRPLedger (81%) have their respective supplies in historically high-risk profit levels compared to their averages that hover in the 55%-75% range dating back to 2018.”

This means holders are booking profits on recent rallies as uncertainties kick in.

Related: Price analysis 1/15: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOGE

According to Santiment, XRP’s price could still recover “due to more exposure from # ETF’s and other positive news,” but a good signal to look out for “continued long-term growth would be a breach below 75% of their supplies in profit once again.”

No plans for an XRP ETF — Blackrock

The approval of 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States on Jan. 10 sparked hopes of other spot ETFs entering the market, including Ether ETFs and XRP ETFs.

There are a number of spot ETH ETFs before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, whose final decision is expected on May 23. While this sparked a rally in Ether’s price last week, there are little prospects for the same happening for XRP ETFs.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has reportedly said it has no plans to launch a spot XRP ETF.

Citing “people with direct knowledge of the matter,” Fox Business journalist Charles Gasparino shared this news through a post on X, saying, “@BlackRock has no plans for a spot $XRP ETF.”

SCOOP: @BlackRock has no plans for a spot $XRP ETF, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter story developing

— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) January 18, 2024

Speculation on a spot XRP ETF was previously sparked by a comment from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink during a Fox Business interview.

When asked about an XRP ETF, the CEO’s elusive response of “I can’t talk about that!” fueled discussions and hopes among investors and analysts.

The recent developments have dampened these hopes, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the XRP market.