LEARN LTH SUPPLY INDEX IN 3 MINUTES ——BLOCKCHAIN 101

The One On-Chain Metric Smart Crypto Investors Never Ignore

If you’re navigating the crypto market and still relying solely on price charts and RSI swings, you might be missing one of the most underrated but powerful on-chain signals out there: LTH Supply — Long-Term Holder Supply.

Let’s break it down in plain English. No PhDs required. Just 3 minutes, and you’ll know more than 90% of retail traders.

✅ What Is LTH Supply?

LTH stands for Long-Term Holders, typically referring to wallets that haven’t moved their Bitcoin (or other tracked crypto) in over 155 days. Why 155? It’s the threshold used by Glassnode and other analytics firms to differentiate between short-term and long-term holders based on behavioral trends.

LTH Supply is simply the total amount of crypto held by these long-term wallets.

Why Does It Matter?

Here’s the simple logic:The more coins in the hands of long-term holders, the less likely those coins will be sold at short notice.And less sell pressure = more stable or bullish price conditions.Conversely, when LTH Supply drops, it often signals that long-term holders are offloading their positions — often during euphoric price peaks or trend reversals.

High LTH Supply= Market in accumulation mode
Declining LTH Supply= Smart money may be exiting

This metric is one of the most consistent cycle indicators in crypto.

How to Use LTH Supply in Your Strategy

Here’s how pros integrate LTH Supply into macro-level decisions:

1. Detecting Market Bottoms

Historically, when LTH Supply is near peak levels, it usually signals the market has gone through a major capitulation and is in an accumulation zone.Think mid-2015, late 2018, or late 2022.

2. Spotting Bull Cycle Tops

LTH Supply starts to decline rapidly when the bull run reaches euphoria.Long-term holders begin taking profit.This preceded major corrections in early 2021 and late 2017.

3. Confirming Trend Strength

If price is rising but LTH Supply remains stable or increasing, it indicates strong conviction — fewer people are selling into strength.

How LTH Supply Behaves Across Market Cycles — And Why It Matters

One of the biggest mistakes new traders make is asking:“LTH Supply went up today — does that mean prices will rise tomorrow?”

Wrong question.

LTH Supply is not a day-trading signal. It’s a macro indicator, a thermometer for market conviction and long-term cycle phases.

Let’s break it down by market stages so you can read it like a pro:

Phase 1: Late Bear Market — LTH Supply Gradually Rises

At this stage, retail has left. Volumes are low. Prices flatline.But long-term holders quietly accumulate. LTH Supply rises.
Translation: Accumulation zone. Long-term buy zone forming.

Phase 2: Early Bull Market — LTH Supply Holds Steady

Price begins to recover. Smart money stays put.No one’s selling. The rise is driven by new demand, not internal rotation.
Translation: Bullish confirmation. Trend gaining strength.

Phase 3: Mid-to-Late Bull Market — LTH Supply Starts Dropping

Long-term holders begin to sell into strength.Profits are taken. Chain activity spikes.
Translation: Euphoria phase. Time to reduce risk.

Phase 4: Early Crash — Sharp Drop, Then Panic

Both smart and dumb money start moving. Selling accelerates.But soon, a new wave of LTH begins re-accumulating.
Translation: Wait and watch. A new cycle will build from here.

Pro Tip: Combine with MVRV and SOPR

LTH Supply is a macro signal. To fine-tune your entries/exits, pair it with:

MVRV Ratio: Market vs. Realized Value — are we in overbought territory?
SOPR: Are coins being sold at a profit or loss?

The trio gives you a clearer view of sentiment, conviction, and potential inflection points.

Final Thought: Think Like the Smart Money

Long-term holders are typically the most experienced, most convicted, and least emotional players in the market. Watching what they do — and when — gives you an edge beyond technical patterns and short-term news.

Next time you’re tempted by a breakout candle or a juicy meme coin, take a second and ask:What’s the LTH Supply telling me?

Because price is noisy, but behavior is data.