Price analysis 4/29: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, TON, DOGE, ADA

Bitcoin and altcoins are falling toward strong support levels, which appear likely to hold in the short term.

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen about 12% in April, and if bears sustain the lower levels, it will be the worst-performing month since November 2022, according to data from CoinGlass. Bitcoin bulls could continue to face challenges in May because the month has produced a negative monthly close for the past three years.

The near-term uncertainty in Bitcoin’s price has resulted in net outflows from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds for three consecutive days from April 24, per Farside Investors data. This suggests that traders are cautious and are waiting for Bitcoin to resume its upmove before buying again.

Even as Bitcoin searches for direction, select altcoins may start to perform. Analysts from crypto analytics platform Santiment said the gas fees on Ethereum network fell to a six-month low, indicating a “lack of demand and strain on the network.” This suggests a market bottom, which could trigger a possible turnaround in Ether (ETH) and associated altcoins “sooner than many may expect.”

What are the important support levels to watch out for in Bitcoin and altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index has been trading below the moving averages for the past few days, but the bears failed to capitalize on the advantage. This shows solid buying at lower levels.

The index has reached the moving averages, an important level to keep an eye on. If the price rises above the moving averages, the index could rally to 5,200 and then to the all-time high at 5,265. The bears are expected to vigorously defend the level.

Conversely, if the price turns down sharply from the moving averages, it will suggest that the bears are trying to take control. The index may drop to 4,990 and then to 4,953. A break below this support could drag the price to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 4,821.

U.S. Dollar Index price analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been rising inside an ascending channel pattern for the past few days, indicating an up move.

The price turned down from the channel’s resistance line on April 17, and the index fell to the 20-day exponential moving average ($105). The price rebounded off the 20-day EMA on April 26, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This shows selling on relief rallies.

If the 20-day EMA gives way, it will tilt the short-term advantage in favor of the bears. The index may continue to trade inside the channel for a few more days. The index could slide to the 50-day simple moving average (104) and then to the support line.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin has been gradually falling toward the critical support at $59,600, where the bulls are likely to mount a strong defense.

If the price turns up sharply from $59,600, it will indicate that the bulls are not willing to give up without a fight. The BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($64,897) and later to the 50-day SMA ($67,091). A break above this level will clear the path for a possible retest of $73,777.

This optimistic view could be negated in the near term if the price continues lower and breaks below $59,600. That could accelerate selling and pull the pair toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $54,298.

Ether price analysis

Ether  rose above the 20-day EMA ($3,214) on April 27, but the bulls could not overcome the barrier at the 50-day SMA ($3,397).

The price turned down from the 50-day SMA on April 28, indicating that the bears are selling on every minor relief rally. The ETH/USDT pair could drop to $3,056. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will indicate that the bulls are trying to flip $3,056 into support. If that happens, the bulls will make another attempt to drive the price above the 50-day SMA.

Instead, if the price breaks below $3,056, it will suggest that the bears remain in charge. The pair may then slump to the pivotal support at $2,850.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) has dipped to the moving averages, an essential support for the bulls to defend if they want to maintain their advantage.

If the price skids below the moving averages, it will suggest that the bears are fiercely defending the overhead resistance at $635. The BNB/USDT pair could then descend to the strong support at $495.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the moving averages, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. That will enhance the prospects of a rally above $635. The pair may then climb to $692.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) continued lower and is on track to dip to the vital support at $126. Buyers are expected to aggressively defend this level.

If the price rebounds off $126 with strength, it will suggest solid buying at lower levels. The SOL/USDT pair could reach the 20-day EMA ($149). If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will increase the likelihood of a collapse below $126.

Alternatively, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the $126 to $162 zone for a while. The next directional move may begin on a break above $162 or below $126.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) slipped below the uptrend line on April 27, suggesting that the bears are trying to strengthen their position.

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.53) and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that the bears have the upper hand. The XRP/USDT pair could descend to the strong support zone between $0.46 and $0.41. Buyers are expected to defend this zone with all their might because a break below it may sink the pair to $0.35.

If the price rises and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls are attempting a comeback. The buyers will gain strength on a break and close above the 50-day SMA ($0.58).

Related: Why is the crypto market down today?

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($5.27) on April 27, but the relief rally could not even reach the 20-day EMA ($5.70). This shows that every minor rally is being sold into.

If the price continues lower and breaks below the 50-day SMA, it will signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The TON/USDT pair could tumble to $4.7 and subsequently to $4.50.

However, the bulls are likely to have other plans. They will try to push the price above the 20-day EMA and signal a comeback. The pair may then rise to the channel’s support line, where the bears are likely to mount a strong defense. If buyers drive the price into the channel, it will suggest that the correction may have ended.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped below the symmetrical triangle pattern on April 27, indicating that the bears overpowered the bulls.

The DOGE/USDT pair could decline to the strong support at $0.12, where the bulls are likely to step in. A weak bounce off $0.12 will increase the likelihood of a breakdown. If that happens, the pair may slump to $0.08.

On the upside, the zone between the 20-day EMA ($0.16) and the downtrend line is likely to act as a significant hurdle. Buyers will have to overcome this obstacle to signal that the downtrend could be ending.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) has slipped below the crucial support of $0.46, indicating that the bears are maintaining their pressure.

The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the price sustains below $0.46, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $0.40.

This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns up and breaks above $0.52. That could propel the price to the 50-day SMA ($0.58), where the bears may again pose a strong challenge.