Why Bitcoin ETFs with ‘zero flows’ don’t mean what you think

Over 2,000 United States ETFs see no inflows on any given day — something thats “very normal,” says ETF analyst James Seyffart.

Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) having days of zero inflows is completely normal and shouldn’t be misinterpreted as a failure of the products themselves, says Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart. 

On most days, the “vast majority” of all United States ETFs post zero inflows — something completely normal for any ETFs in a given sector, Seyffart said in an April 16 X post.

“On any given day, the vast majority of ETFs will have a flow number of ZERO — this is very normal. There are ~3,500 ETFs in the U.S. Yesterday 2,903 of them had a flow of exactly zero.”

Several market commentators voiced concerns about the low inflows into U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF was the only one to see inflows for two consecutive trading days this week — between April 12 and April 15.

Seyffart said the flows were no cause for concern and were typical for most ETFs due to how new inflows are recorded.

For an ETF to record new inflows or outflows there has to be a significant enough mismatch between supply and demand to justify making or destroying new fund shareswhich are issued in “creation units,” Seyffart explained.

“This ONLY happens when there is a mismatch in supply [and] demand. And that mismatch has to be large enough to justify tapping the underlying market and a ~bigger mismatch than a creation unit,” Seyffart added.

Creation units are the “lots” in which ETF shares are created and redeemed.

“Every ETF can have a different-sized creation unit. In the case of the spot Bitcoin ETFs they are blocks of shares ranging from 5,000 shares to 50,000 shares,” he said.

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Four of the last six trading days have seen all ten U.S. spot Bitcoin products witness net outflows, with selling from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) far outpacing inflows into the new funds.

Preliminary April 16 ETF flow data from Farside Investors show GBTC experienced $79.4 million in outflows. So did the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), which saw $12.9 million in outflows.

April 14 and 15 saw all combined ETFs post net outflows of $55.1 million and $36.7 million, respectively.

The recent net outflows for the Bitcoin ETFs follow several days of subpar price action for Bitcoin, which is down 7.8% on the week to $63,723, per TradingView data.

Traders and market pundits have pointed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as well as the upcoming Bitcoin halving event — currently slated for April 20 — as primary causes of volatility.