Bitcoin’s ‘ultimate price’ could surpass $700K based on 3% portfolio allocation — Analyst

In the bullish case, Bitcoin’s ultimate price could surpass $24 million per coin, but global adoption still needs to grow by at least fourfold.

Bitcoin price could ultimately reach up to $700,000 per token, provided that financial institutions continue bolstering the adoption curve of the world’s first cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) could reach an “ultimate price” of over $700,000, based on an assumed 3% portfolio allocation, according to popular Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo, who wrote in an Aug. 1 X post:

“BTC, even in this early phase of an asset class, Fidelity recommends 1-3% allocation, while we have seen numbers as high as 85% from BlackRock. If we assume 3% as a sensible allocation then the lower bound of valuation is $700k.”

Bitcoin’s growing price is attracting more institutional investors with large amounts of capital, which could significantly contribute to its price appreciation. Bitcoin price could be on track to reach a new all-time high by September, based on historical chart patterns.

Related: $35T US national debt could bolster Bitcoin’s adoption as ‘hard money’

Bitcoin adoption first needs to cross above the 16% threshold

Woo’s calculations are based on the value of all global wealth assets, worth over $500 trillion.

However, for Bitcoin to reach its ultimate price, the adoption curve needs to surpass the 16% threshold, according to Woo:

“16% is the early majority, 50% is the late majority. Wealth management is somewhere in this sector. So figure out when BTC adoption enters 16%-50% world adoption based on the yellow line.”

It took Bitcoin over 15 years to be adopted by 4.7% of the world’s population, as of Aug. 1. Yet, Bitcoin’s adoption rate could see an acceleration if it follows the path of the internet’s adoption, which saw a significant uptick after the first 15 years.

Related: Bitcoin, gold on track to break out as ‘macro summer’ begins — Analyst

Bitcoin still needs to reclaim its old all-time high

Despite the optimistic predictions, Bitcoin price is still 12% away from its all-time high of $73,750, reached on March 14.

Bitcoin price rose 2.9% during the past month to trade at $64,465 as of 9:51 am UTC on Aug. 1, according to Bitstamp data.

Slowing inflows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could be the main reason why Bitcoin is struggling to gain momentum.

The US ETFs only amassed a cumulative $300,000 worth of Bitcoin on July 31, while they saw over $18.3 million worth of cumulative net outflows on July 30, according to Farside Investors data.

ETF inflows can significantly contribute to a cryptocurrency’s price appreciation. For Bitcoin, ETFs had accounted for about 75% of new investment in the world’s largest cryptocurrency by Feb. 15, as it surpassed the $50,000 mark.

Adding to the optimistic outlook, over 75% of Bitcoin’s short-term holders were in profit as of July 24. This could translate into more upward momentum for BTC since the short–term cohort is often used to gauge retail demand for Bitcoin.