Google says no 'straight line' between generative AI and unemployment

A new study published by Google highlighted the economic repercussions of generative AI and its probable influence on employment trends and workforce dynamics.

Google says that it has found no “straight line” between the spread of powerful technology such as artificial intelligence (AI) and unemployment, according to a new study.

On April 25, the Big Tech company published the study, conducted by Andrew McAfee the principal research scientist at the MIT Sloan School of Management, on the global economic impact of generative AI.

It was revealed that there is currently no direct correlation, nor is this something to change, “at least in the short run,” due to limitations of the technology. The report said:

“It is not yet able to reliably do multi-step work that involves planning, reasoning, or memory.”

The study cited previous work in 2023 that administered hundreds of questions requiring the aforementioned skills to both humans and top-performing AI systems. On average, humans scored 92% correct answers, while machines came in at only 15%.

Nonetheless, the study said that generative AI is on track to improve quickly with “intense research” to understand how to troubleshoot its weaknesses.

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It used an example of OpenAI’s GPT 3.5 system, the version released in late 2022 that was a major catalyst for the current AI frenzy, performing better than only 10% of humans on the U.S. bar exam. Its successor, only a year later, GPT 4, performed better than 90%.

It concluded that, “there is no shortage of important work to be done in every society. A great deal of this work… can’t be done by the robots and AI of today, as powerful as they are.”

The new Industrial Revolution

The Google-released study called AI a “general purpose technology” and likened it to the steam engine, which was the spark that ignited the global Industrial Revolution in the late 1800s.

Unlike the gradual spread of technology during the Industrial Revolution, the impacts of generative AI are anticipated to manifest more swiftly.

The study highlighted primarily that this is due to the existing infrastructure being largely in place, allowing for swift global implementation of improvements, and because it is easily accessible for people to begin working with.

“Most generative AI’s users don’t have to master a new user interface or programming language… It requires time and practice to become proficient at interacting with generative AI, but it doesn’t require many ‘computer skills.’”

Transforming the workforce

According to the study, while the technology may not cause “massive technological unemployment,” there is enough evidence that it could contribute to “hollowing out” the labor force among higher-paying jobs.

“For all the work done in a modern economy finds that generative AI affects more of the tasks done by college graduates than by high-school only graduates.”

There is also potential for the technology to disrupt the way competition between businesses plays out, stating that generative AI could further empower a small group of “superstars” in a given industry in a way that would allow them outpace their rivals.

“Fading incumbents will conduct layoffs, and the number of people who need to find new jobs and acquire new skills will increase,” it said. However, according to research, companies that had invested heavily in machine learning were not the ones conducting layoffs.