Experts say ‘no quantum winter’ in 2024 amid rapid advancements

Quantum computing investments declined in 2023, but a slew of recent advancements could indicate a trend reversal is on the way.

A Jan. 30 report from IQM, OpenOcean and Lakestar indicates there’ll be no “quantum winter” in 2024 as the sector looks to recover after quantum computing investments took a 50% dive in 2023. 

Dubbed the “IQM–OpenOcean–Lakestar State of Quantum 2024,” the report’s bottom-line-up-front is that the quantum computing sector should remain resilient to investor slowdown thanks to widespread government backing and continuing advances.

(2/2) The report shows that quantum computing has been resilient to overall downturns in the global economy, with continued growth backed up by strong government support and continued investment momentum in Europe.

— IQM Quantum Computers (@meetIQM) January 30, 2024

Quantum in Europe

The report took a look at Europe’s position in the quantum sector and solicited insights from experts across “a wide range of enterprise end users, vendors and research institutions, including HSBC, Dell, Federal Reserve, Citi & Moderna.”

According to the report, fears that 2023’s negative investment trend will continue throughout 2024 may be overblown:

“If anything, the downturn in private investments has started to be increasingly picked up by government backed funding commitments and contracts, bridging the gap in investor apprehension.”

The quantum technologies situation in Europe differs slightly from that around the world. Investments shrunk by 50% globally and 80% in the United States for the sector in 2023. Despite this overall decline, the Europe, Middle East and Africa sector showed 3% growth.

Cautious optimism

While the outlook seems improved for quantum computing, there are still uncertainties that could drive investor reluctance.

Some experts warned that AI is “cannibalizing attention, investment and interest away from quantum computing,” while others were more concerned that it could be years before quantum computing moves beyond its infancy. 

Ultimately, there’s no clear timeline for the sector’s maturity, and because of this, experts expect government investments and partnerships to carry the sector through what’s predicted to be a general slowdown for the entire tech sector.

That said, a number of prominent quantum computing companies have recently updated their roadmaps to indicate that a technological inflection point could happen by the end of the decade.

IBM says it’ll hit an inflection point in quantum computing by 2029. MIT/Harvard spinout QuEra claims it will have a 10,000-qubit error-corrected quantum computer by 2026. Cambridge/Honeywell spinout Quantinuum recently raised $500 million in a funding round led by JPMorgan Chase to develop its own error-corrected quantum system.

Related: Scientists figure out how to surpass ‘quantum advantage’ with binary computers