Quantum computing’s ChatGPT moment could be right around the corner

We could have machines capable of breaking RSA encryption by 2030, but quantum sensing and other beneficial applications should arrive first.

Tech experts across government, academia, and the private sector are methodically working to ensure the world’s data is safe from the impending threat of quantum decryption. While this may represent the greatest technological threat this side of AI-wrought extinction, there may be some silver linings along the way. 

At some point, possibly in the near future, researchers believe a quantum computing system capable of breaking RSA encryption — the standard that protects banks, military bases, and countless other institutions from hackers and spies — will emerge.

Related: WEF identifies AI and quantum computing as emerging global threats

Before that happens, however, several other quantum technology solutions will likely need to come into focus. Chief among them, may very well be quantum sensing.

Quantum safe encryption

Jack Hidary, the CEO of SandboxAQ, a Google sibling company focused on quantum technologies, is certain we’ll see “scaled, fault-tolerant quantum computers” by the end of the decade.

In a talk entitled “Quantum’s Black Swan,” given at the World Economic Forum, the CEO discussed the threat of quantum decryption as well as some of the potential breakthroughs we could see ahead of it.

“People got surprised by Gen-AI, and what’s going to happen here is the same thing. At some point, people are going to say, ‘Wow, what a surprise, what a shock, that our cryptography is broken!’”

Hidary predicts that ‘certainly by 2029-30, we’re going to see scaled, fault-tolerant quantum computers,” which could be capable of breaking encryption.”

He’s not the only one making predictions that would have seemed bold just a few years ago. IBM, currently considered the industry leader by many, says it’ll hit an inflection point in quantum computing by 2029. And MIT/Harvard spinout QuEra claims it’ll have a 10,000-qubit error-corrected quantum computer by 2026.

Theoretically-speaking, any quantum computer capable of quantum advantage — outperforming classical binary computers at useful tasks — could break RSA encryption.

Luckily, as Hidary pointed out, groups around the world, including the U.S. government and IBM, have identified algorithms and policies that should be able to protect our data if they can be implemented in time.

Quantum sensing

It’s likely we’ll see a swell of related quantum technologies before the threat of quantum-based encryption breaking is realized. This could manifest in less-powerful quantum computing systems capable of pushing beyond the limitations of today’s modern binary supercomputers.

However, a more immediate quantum technology might be quantum sensing. According to Hidary, quantum sensors could fill in the gaps in our GPS system — perhaps even thwarting active attempts at obfuscating satellite signals.

There could be myriad uses for quantum sensors ranging from medical applications involving deeper, more accurate, real-time body and brain scanning to potential implications for robotics capable of full, untethered autonomy.

Much like most AI experts and pundits couldn’t have predicted the impact ChatGPT would have less than a decade after the seminal “Generative Adversarial Networks” paper was published, it might be difficult to determine just how quantum computing will break through from the lab to the mainstream.