Abstract

Trading volume: Ethereum spot ETF was officially listed and traded last night (23rd). After 90 minutes of opening, the trading volume reached US$ 320 million, which is about 50% of the 90-minute trading volume (US$ 610 million) of Bitcoin spot ETF on the first day of opening. After the close, the total trading volume of the Ethereum spot ETF on the first day was $1 billion, which was 23% of the trading volume of the Bitcoin spot ETF on the first day.

Price: Many participants and watchers were very disappointed that the ETH price was quite stagnant on the day of release, which was manifested as: the trading range was relatively narrow, the fluctuation range was only 5%, and it was almost flat at the close. Bloomberg ETF analysts said: The probability that Ethereum will not hit a new high this year is over 50%!

From trading volume to price, it seems a foregone conclusion that ETH’s ETF suffered from Waterloo, but is this really the case? Let’s look at the specific report:

ETH spot ETF outflows $165 million on the first day

If you often study in SuperEx College, you can know that in the secondary market, quantity is one of the most basic and accurate indicators to reflect the advantages and disadvantages of a currency or stock. Therefore, we look at ETH’s ETF from the perspective of capital flow.

Overall quantity and energy situation

Ethereum spot ETF was officially listed and traded last night (23rd). After 90 minutes of opening, the trading volume reached 320 million US dollars, which is about 50% of the 90-minute trading volume (610 million US dollars) of Bitcoin spot ETF on the first day of opening. After the close, the total trading volume of the Ethereum spot ETF on the first day was $1 billion, which was 23% of the trading volume of the Bitcoin spot ETF on the first day.

Net inflow: According to the statistics of James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg, the total outflow of ETH spot ETF on the first day of launch was $165 million, and the net inflow was:

Bitwise ETHW: the inflow is $204 million;

Fidelity FETH: the inflow is $71.3 million;

Grayscale ETH Mini Trust: the inflow is $15.1 million;

The inflow of Franklin EZET is $13.2 million;

Vanneckethv inflow is $7.6 million.

21 The inflow of Shareseth is $7.5 million;

It should be noted that ETHE of Grayscale has a total net outflow of $470 million, which is close to 5% of its AUM, because of profit-taking or low conversion fees. If the outflow of ETHE is excluded, the newly launched spot ETF products have received an inflow of 484 million US dollars. From the perspective of quantity and energy, ETH ETF trading market of ETH still has more demand than supply, which has laid a good foundation for the subsequent development. It is not too much to say that the future can be expected.

ETH fell below $3,400, and the downward price affected the market’s expectation of ETH.

Although from the horizontal comparison, ETF trading volume of ETH on the first day is only 23% of that of bitcoin spot ETF, considering the multi-dimensional gap between ETH and BTC in terms of price, consensus and encryption capacity, ETF independent data is not bad. As mentioned above, ETF trading market of ETH is still more than supply in terms of quantity and capacity, and the market demand is strong. It is not too much to say that the future can be expected.

However, the real reason for narrowing the market’s expectation of ETFs on ETH is that the performance of ETH’s own price on the day of launch is too unsatisfactory, and ETH’s price is quite stagnant on the day of release, as shown in the following:

The trading range is relatively narrow, with a fluctuation range of only 5%, which is almost flat at the close;

The transaction price surged back and fell below 3,400 levels, which was in a broken position;

There was a rebound before the deadline, but the magnitude was not large and the stamina was weak.

On the whole, the market seems to be not optimistic about the price of Ethereum this year, perhaps due to the weak market driven by the spot ETF.

ETH spot ETF development significance > short-term price

Although the price of ETF on the first day is regrettable, the capital inflow is undoubtedly exciting. However, I think the real significance for ETH is that it is an important milestone for ETH to be recognized by the mainstream world, and its significance is greater than the price and the amount of funds.

It can be predicted that with the promotion of global mainstream financial institutions, more and more people will realize the advantages of decentralization, and there will be more and more consensus.