Scott Melker notes in the Wall Street Journal that the price of Bitcoin appreciated 250.86% in the last halving cycle, so we expect the price of Bitcoin to be around $240,000

summary

Scott Melker pointed out in The Wall Street Journal that in the previous halving cycle, the price of Bitcoin rose from $20000 to $69000, and emphasized climbing up of 250.86%. He said that if a similar trend occurs, “we expect the price of Bitcoin to be around $240000.”

The fourth halving of Bitcoin is imminent, and this time it may receive unprecedented attention due to the impact of BTC spot ETFs. This halving marks a reduction in Bitcoin mining rewards from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block. These supply reductions occur every 210000 blocks or approximately every four years as part of Bitcoin’s gradual and deflationary approach to reach its final circulating supply limit.

The limited supply of 21 million Bitcoins is a fundamental feature of Bitcoin. The predictability of supply and inflation rates has always been a core factor driving the demand and supply of Bitcoin as a superior form of currency.

Halving the regular supply is the ultimate mechanism to achieve limited supply.

Over time, halving Bitcoin is one of the most fundamental reasons driving the transformation of Bitcoin incentive mechanisms.

As Satoshi Nakamoto stated in Section 6 (Incentives) of the White Paper:

“This incentive measure can also be funded through transaction fees. If the output value of a transaction is less than its input value, the difference is the transaction fee, which will be added to the incentive value of the block containing the transaction. Once a predetermined number of tokens enter circulation, the incentive measure can be fully transformed into a transaction fee and is completely unaffected by inflation.”

From a historical perspective, the halving is related to the significant appreciation of Bitcoin prices, offsetting the impact of the halving of miner subsidies. The miner’s bill is paid in fiat currency, which means that if the price of Bitcoin appreciates, resulting in a decrease in the amount of Bitcoin earned per block and an increase in income in US dollars, the negative impact on mining operations will be eased.

Overall, halving BTC will drive further growth in BTC prices, and this year, due to the impact of BTC spot ETFs, both attention and demand have far exceeded the previous three halvings.

The capital inflows of the top three Bitcoin ETFs far exceed $500 million (excluding Grayscale’s $22 billion fund, which has been converted from existing GBTC trust funds and has seen significant outflows), indicating a huge demand from customers for traditional on exchange trading.

Although the price of BTC spot ETFs did not perform as expected, their funding performance far exceeded expectations, like a pool constantly filled in with fresh water. Market observers urgently need the next potential bullish event to drive up BTC prices, and the fourth halving of BTC is the long-awaited opportunity for the market.

We will briefly support this viewpoint with a few examples:

Case 1:

Scott Melker is a renowned trader, investor, writer, and host of the All Streets Wolf podcast. In 2020, he was awarded the Binance North America Influencer of the Year Award. In an article published earlier this week in The Wall Street Journal, he provided insights into the expected halving of Bitcoin in April 2024. He also explained why the incident may have pushed the price of Bitcoin up to $240000.

Melker explained in detail, “When the number of blocks mined reaches 840000 in April 2024, Bitcoin will be halved, and the rewards for each block will be reduced from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125.” “This basically means that the supply of new issues will be reduced by half. The difficulty for miners to make money from mining Bitcoin has doubled.”

Meanwhile, Melker pointed out, “In the previous halving cycle, BTC rose from $20000 to a $69000, a rapid climbing up rate of 250.86%. If we consider the next 250% and move it from $69000 (the highest price in Bitcoin history) to the next cycle, then we predict the price of Bitcoin to be around $240000.”

“I know talking about Bitcoin at $170000 or $220000, and even reaching $1 million one day may seem a bit exaggerated. But this cycle has been valid in the past until I see it no longer valid in the future, and I bet we will see Bitcoin exceeding $200000,” Melker said.

Case 2:

Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci expects a halving to drive BTC prices up to $170000. He said, “If the price of Bitcoin is halved to $45000 (at current levels), it will reach $170000 by mid to late 2025.”

Case 3:

Standard Chartered Bank predicted earlier this month that Bitcoin may reach $200000 next year.

Case 4:

Venture capitalist Tim Draper recently increased his forecast for BTC, predicting that the price of Bitcoin will reach $250000 this year. The billionaire also envisioned the moment when people no longer needed dollars.

Inscription: New factors affecting this halving

The appearance of inscriptions indicates that BTC has found a new incentive mode, which did not exist in the previous three halvings. This is also the first halving of the inscriptions ecosystem.

We cannot know how much impact the inscription will have on the halving of Bitcoin, but it can be certain that the impact this time is positive. The substantial market demand and incentive channels carried by the inscription ecosystem will be the best “adrenaline” for the market and miners.

The halving this time will become intriguing and exciting, but the only thing that can be guaranteed is that it is another moment of hype, a burst of market FOMO sentiment.