2026 Preview: Key Milestones in U.S. Cryptocurrency Policy

#2026 #Preview #Cryptocurrency

Everyone knows that U.S. policy has an enormous impact on the crypto market. On one hand, this is because the dollar system brings financial influence; on the other hand, the United States is the country most actively seeking “major crypto power” status globally, always trying to establish itself as the world’s crypto financial center. With these two forces combined, U.S. crypto policy has a huge pulling effect on the crypto market.

This pull is not only reflected in sharp short-term price volatility. More profoundly, it shapes the global crypto industry’s development direction, its path of technological innovation, and the confidence and strategies of market participants. Every statement from U.S. regulators, every step forward on relevant bills, and even discussions at congressional hearings can quickly become a focal point for the global crypto community, triggering broad interpretation and responses from institutional investors all the way to individual traders.

For crypto companies attempting to expand globally, the U.S. policy environment is often a core factor that must be prioritized when designing compliance strategies and market positioning, because entering or exiting the U.S. market can have decisive effects on valuation, user growth, and fundraising capacity.

So today, based on publicly available information from the U.S. government, let’s take stock of the key milestones in U.S. crypto policy in 2026.

January — Market Structure Bill & Innovation Exemption, Opening the Policy “Trial Balloon” Phase

In the first month of 2026, the U.S. crypto regulatory space will likely see a “directional trial balloon.”

The Senate is expected to hold hearings in January on a market structure bill, which means that the debate of the past two years — “are crypto assets securities or commodities?” — will continue moving toward an institutionalized framework. Washington political circles, regulatory agencies, the financial industry, crypto companies, and industry lobbying groups will all engage in ongoing maneuvering around this topic.

At the same time, SEC Chair Paul Atkins plans to introduce an “Innovation Exemption.” Put simply, it would allow certain tech-innovation companies to be “looser first, tighter later” on compliance requirements: as long as a company meets certain risk-control and disclosure conditions, it can enter the market to test the waters, without having to carry extremely heavy regulatory obligations from day one.

For blockchain startup teams, Web3 companies, and financial innovation projects, this could be a truly meaningful “fast compliance lane.” If this exemption is introduced around January as planned, it will directly affect:

The speed at which new projects enter the U.S. market
How investment institutions make risk-control judgments
Token issuance path design
The development of compliance consulting and the audit industry

Once the market senses that regulatory posture has shifted toward being “prudently friendly,” a new cycle of entrepreneurship and financing may well be the first to sprout on U.S. soil.

May — A Change at the Fed, A Potential Inflection Point for Money and Risk Appetite

In May 2026, Wall Street’s attention will return to a leadership transition at the Federal Reserve. The current chair, Jerome Powell, will officially reach the end of his term on May 15. Whether he is reappointed or not, at least one thing is certain: monetary policy will continue to be a key variable shaping crypto asset valuations.

If the Trump administration appoints a chair who is more inclined toward an accommodative stance and more friendly to market sentiment, then rate policy may lean more toward easing, while risk-asset risk appetite may rise. This would directly improve the liquidity environment, thereby pushing institutions to reassess their allocation structures.

Bitcoin and digital assets, as highly elastic assets, will likely continue to be part of the liquidity-trading logic.

Conversely, if the new chair emphasizes prudence and inflation stability, then the crypto industry may face a more rational phase of valuation repair.

So May is not only a personnel-adjustment node, but also a key month for shifts in market expectations.

July — Genius Act Rules Land, California Crypto Licensing System Launches

In July 2026, a large number of concrete regulatory provisions related to crypto compliance are expected to land in concentrated fashion.

First, the supplemental rules for the Genius Act will formally enter the release window. This means that what used to be only a legal-text framework will now begin moving into the phase of regulatory details and enforcement.

The supplemental rules will cover:

Issuer licensing qualifications
Capital requirement thresholds
Custody compliance standards
Anti–money laundering review mechanisms
Risk disclosure requirements

More importantly, these rules will be pushed forward simultaneously at both the federal and state levels in the United States. For exchanges, custodians, and issuance platforms, this is a real key moment that directly reshapes business structures.

At the same time, California’s Digital Financial Assets Law will officially take effect on July 1.

This means that any institution providing digital financial asset–related services to California residents — regardless of whether you are incorporated in California — may be brought into a licensing and regulatory regime.

And California:

Concentrates the largest number of tech entrepreneurs
Has extremely high Web3 startup activity
Has dense venture capital resources
Has a concentrated talent ecosystem

Therefore, California policy spillover effects often influence broader U.S. tech trends.

July may become “the month of compliance business-model reshaping.”

August — Tax Rules, Stablecoin De Minimis Threshold, and CFTC Implementation Details

Entering August, the policy keywords become two things: taxes and market infrastructure regulation.

On one hand, the U.S. Congress is expected to advance key agenda items on crypto tax legislation, especially the portion concerning a de minimis exemption threshold for small payments. For example:

Buying coffee
Everyday consumption
Low-amount peer-to-peer transfers

If a threshold can be formally established so that such transactions do not trigger tax obligations, then crypto payments will truly gain the rationality of being an “everyday payment tool.” Otherwise, if even a small daily purchase requires calculating capital gains tax, it is almost impossible for ordinary people to execute.

On the other hand, around August, the CFTC will also finalize a regulatory framework for the application of blockchain technology in capital markets. This will cover:

Settlement systems
Clearing systems
Trading infrastructure
Asset registration

In the long run, these rules determine whether traditional financial infrastructure will adopt blockchain’s underlying technology at large scale.

If this step is truly taken, then RWA can be said to have entered the institutional stage.

November — The Midterms, the Ultimate Variable for Policy Direction

The most uncertain moment of 2026 is, without a doubt, the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.

The reason is simple:

The structure of Congress
Party stances
Who controls committee chairmanships

will all be reshuffled after that day.

If Republicans continue to hold congressional dominance, the crypto industry will most likely maintain a policy-friendly window.

But if Democrats successfully mount a comeback, then:

The difficulty of pushing new bills will rise
Compliance discourse power will tilt toward the more cautious camp
Market expectations will shift

Although the “anti-crypto camp” within the Democratic Party has clearly slowed its stance, the overall posture is still more cautious.

Therefore, November is not only a political node, but also a decision point for industry confidence.

Final Notes

The direction of U.S. crypto policy in 2026 will not be a linear path. It will look more like a process of constant revision, maneuvering, compromise, and adjustment:

Regulators want to ensure safety and transparency
The industry wants to preserve space for innovation
Political forces push the direction to change cyclically
Market sentiment fluctuates with policy expectations

From January to November, nearly every node will become an important signal for capital markets and the industry ecosystem.

For ordinary participants, none of this necessarily requires “tracking the original policy text in real time,” but understanding the policy rhythm can help you: see the trend, instead of only staring at price fluctuations.