Shocking NFP, Trump’s Outburst, Bitcoin Crash: A Global Market Earthquake Triggered by One Set of Data

#NFP #Bitcoin #Trump

In this week’s violent financial market turbulence, a seemingly “ordinary” U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) report lit the fuse to an explosive chain reaction. The crypto market wasn’t spared — Bitcoin broke through key support levels, Ethereum saw over $200 million in liquidations, and Coinbase shares plummeted nearly 17%. Panic swept through the market.

This isn’t just a statistical anomaly — this is a deeper crisis that spans macroeconomics, political maneuvering, and market expectations. And this crisis is reshaping the value logic and investment landscape of digital assets.

NFP Data Misses Expectations — A “Collapse” Far Beyond Forecasts

On August 1 local time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its July non-farm payroll report:Actual jobs added: 73,000，Forecast: 110,000；Previous (revised): 14,000 (down from 147,000, a 10x revision)，Unemployment rate: 4.2%, up 0.1 percentage points

The data not only missed expectations — it saw a brutal revision of previous figures, marking the lowest monthly job growth in nearly a year. From a macro perspective, the U.S. job market is cooling fast. This isn’t a “minor fluctuation,” but a potential inflection point for the economy.

Consumer sentiment cooling: Weak employment directly weakens consumer spending power, a main driver of U.S. growth.
Inflation outlook revised: Weak jobs + weak consumption could accelerate the CPI downtrend.
Rate cut expectations flip: Markets immediately priced in faster rate cuts in September and October.
CME FedWatch: Probability of a 25 bps cut in September jumps to 89.8%, while the probability of a 50 bps cut in October hits 51.8%.

This creates a paradox: the data is bad, but the market is betting on a rebound thanks to looser policy. Yet in crypto, this didn’t bring a rally — it triggered a panic sell-off.

Trump’s Outrage — Political Uncertainty Amplifies Financial Risk

Trump wasted no time seizing on the “disastrous” report, launching a fierce attack. He accused the NFP data of being manipulated and ordered the removal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, directly targeting the Biden administration. He also turned his fire on the Federal Reserve and Chair Powell, hinting that rate policy was “politically orchestrated,” and vowed that if re-elected, he would “clean out the political forces controlling the economy.”

Political interference creates a chain of new risks:

Data transparency undermined: Investor trust is shaken.
Doubts over Fed independence: Will the Fed be pressured into political compliance?
Flight to safety: Geopolitical tensions + system uncertainty = risk-off positioning.

Trump even announced the deployment of nuclear submarines near Russia, further inflaming global geopolitical tension. All of this injected greater instability into the market, placing structural pressure on Bitcoin and other digital assets.

Crypto Market Takes a Beating — The Truth Behind $700 Million in Liquidations

Within 12 hours of the NFP release, the crypto market saw a cliff-drop crash. According to SuperEx data:

BTC bottomed at: 112,751 USDT

ETH bottomed at: 3,431 USDT

Total liquidations (24h): $726 million
Longs liquidated: $640 million
Shorts liquidated: $86.85 million
ETH liquidations: $270 million
BTC liquidations: $165 million

What’s more, crypto-related equities plunged in tandem:

Coinbase: -16.7%
Riot Platforms: -17.75%
Circle: -8.4%

On-chain data shows concentrated whale sell-offs:

Arthur Hayes sold in 6 hours: 2,373 ETH, 7.76 million ENA, 38.86 billion PEPE
Suspected Anchorage address: bought ~14,933 ETH via Galaxy OTC, worth ~$52 million
Whale behavior diverged sharply: some dumping, some buying the dip — this intensified volatility.

From a Technical & Trader Viewpoint: Major Disagreement

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken below its VWAP band and is testing lower support levels.

Crypto Bully: Maintaining range-bound strategy ($110k–$115k)
Crypto Fella: Believes key support has been lost, BTC may test $112k
Crypto Painter: Notes a broken wedge pattern — if price fails to hold, may shift to descending channel strategy
Sensei: Remains optimistic — sees this as a Bear Trap with rebound potential

Clearly, whether it’s quant systems or human strategies, consensus is lacking — signaling an uncertain market direction.

The “Cursed August”? Crypto’s Cyclical Trap

Here’s an interesting stat: over the past 12 years, BTC has seen a correction in August and September 67% of the time.

Structural reasons for this include:

Quarter-end rebalancing: Most funds reduce exposure to risk assets in Q3
Lower trading activity: Summer vacation thins out liquidity
News drought: Without positive catalysts, volume naturally drops
Macro noise intensifies: Negative headlines concentrate — geopolitics, economic divergence, etc.

This reminds us: during such phases, overtrading and high leverage are especially vulnerable to sudden “stampedes.”

Looking Ahead: Short-Term Correction or Long-Term Consolidation?

This crypto crash, triggered by employment data, isn’t just a short-term shakeout. It feels more like the beginning of a value reassessment.

Bearish case:

U.S. economy may be entering a substantive slowdown
Political interference rising, policy uncertainty continues to climb
Even if the Fed cuts rates, it may not immediately restore investor confidence
Crypto markets still face regulatory pressure and macro hedging headwinds

Bullish case:

Fed rate cuts may accelerate — crypto assets could rebound first
Investors’ risk-off shift may position BTC as a “value anchor”
Whales are quietly accumulating — mid-term support is forming
History shows: major crises often precede major opportunities

We’re currently in a phase of extreme uncertainty. Any directional bets require clearer signals — no reckless moves.

Conclusion

This NFP shock is both a trigger and a mirror. It reminds us:

Crypto is not “decoupled” — it’s a highly sensitive risk asset
Political risk, monetary policy, employment data — any one variable can move the entire market
Crypto asset value needs stronger fundamentals, not just “safe-haven imagination”
Crisis moments are the real test of the Web3 narrative and project resilience

For regular investors, this is a time to stay calm and objective in identifying risk — and consider strategic long-term positioning: