SuperEx丨What’s Next After BTC Drops to a Low of $80,000? 4 Possible Scenarios Explained!

#BTC #SuperEx CryptoMarket

Since March 7, when Trump signed the Crypto Reserve Executive Order, causing BTC to fall below the $90,000 mark, the cryptocurrency market has continued to show a sluggish trend. On March 11, BTC dropped to a low below $80,000. Although discussions about a U.S. economic recession triggered liquidity outflows from high-risk assets in traditional financial markets, leading to a rebound in BTC prices, as of now, BTC remains fluctuating between $80,000 and $84,000, forming a “range-bound” or “box consolidation” pattern.

Simply put, BTC’s price is constantly fluctuating within a fixed range — rising but encountering resistance and falling back, then dropping but finding support. This kind of movement greatly tests investors’ trading skills and patience. So, under the current consolidation pattern, how might BTC develop in the future?

The Main Reasons for BTC’s Continued Decline

Today’s cryptocurrency market is no longer an isolated entity separate from the global financial system. With the successful approval of ETFs and the establishment of the U.S. national crypto reserve, the connection between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets has grown increasingly close. While this trend is beneficial in the long run, in the short term, it also makes the crypto market more susceptible to influences from traditional financial markets.

The Sharp Decline in the Crypto Market Is Mainly Driven by Three Factors

(1) U.S. Stock Market Decline Drags Down the Crypto Market

On March 10, the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower:

• Dow Jones Index fell 2.08%
• Nasdaq Index fell 4%
• S&P 500 Index fell 2.7%

Large technology stocks also saw broad declines:

• Tesla dropped more than 15%
• Nvidia dropped more than 5%
• Apple, Meta, and Google fell more than 4%
• Microsoft declined more than 3%

As a result, U.S. stock-related cryptocurrency concept stocks also suffered sharp losses:

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell 13.56%
• Coinbase (COIN) fell 12.04%
• Tesla (TSLA) fell 12.17%
• MARA Holdings (MARA) fell 12.42%
• Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell 8.48%
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD) fell 10.29%
• Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) fell 12.31%

At the same time, the Asian market was also affected by the decline in U.S. stocks, with Japanese and South Korean stock markets opening lower:

• Nikkei 225 Index opened down 1.1%
• KOSPI Index opened down 2.1%

The decline in U.S. stocks and global stock markets has had a spillover effect on the cryptocurrency market, intensifying the selling pressure on BTC and other crypto assets.

(2) Tariff Policies Increase Economic Uncertainty

The Trump administration has launched consecutive new tariff wars, worsening market pessimism about the global economic outlook. As of press time, U.S. tariffs on certain imports from Canada and Mexico have reached as high as 50%, further escalating global trade tensions.

The market is widely concerned that Trump’s tariff policies and government downsizing plans could undermine U.S. economic growth, thereby impacting investor confidence.

B2C2 executive Nikolay Karpenko stated:
“Although Trump’s announcement regarding the national strategic reserve for cryptocurrencies initially boosted market sentiment, the deteriorating macroeconomic environment has led to aggressive sell-offs, quickly reversing the previous gains.”

(3) Market Becomes “Desensitized” to Trump’s Crypto Policies

Over the past year, the crypto market’s bull run was, to some extent, influenced by Trump. Since July 2024, when Trump attended a Bitcoin conference and made a series of pro-crypto statements, market sentiment surged, and the U.S. presidential election further fueled FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among investors.

However, Trump’s recent actions have begun to undermine market confidence. His move to launch a Meme coin with his wife faced market skepticism, as it was perceived as a short-term speculative maneuver. Additionally, the White House Crypto Summit failed to yield any substantial positive outcomes, further dampening market expectations. Investors have started to become “desensitized” to Trump’s crypto policies, causing market enthusiasm to cool down.

Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown pointed out:
“The biggest issue the market faces is that Trump’s policies change like the wind, making it difficult for investors to make long-term decisions.”

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Four Possible Future Scenarios for BTC

Under the current market conditions, BTC’s future movement can be broadly categorized into the following four possibilities:

(1) Breakout to the Upside, Returning to a Bullish Trend

If the macroeconomic environment improves, particularly if U.S. stocks stabilize and rebound while global market liquidity recovers, BTC could break out of its current consolidation range, reclaiming $90,000 and potentially initiating a new bull run.

Key Driving Factors:

• Looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve
• Recovery in traditional financial markets
• Institutional investors re-entering the market
• Continued capital inflows into BTC ETFs

(2) Continued Range-Bound Consolidation, Building Long-Term Support

BTC might continue to trade sideways between $80,000-$85,000, waiting for a new catalyst. Historically, BTC has experienced prolonged consolidation phases during bull markets, such as in the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles.

Key Driving Factors:

• Market capital remains on the sidelines
• Macroeconomic uncertainty remains high
• Institutions are still assessing market trends

(3) Breaking Below $80,000, Entering a Mid-Term Correction

If the macroeconomic environment worsens further, with deepening U.S. recession fears, continued declines in U.S. stocks, or escalating geopolitical risks, BTC could fall below $80,000, leading to a deeper correction.

Key Driving Factors:

• Rising global risk aversion
• Further declines in the U.S. stock market
• Deterioration in investor confidence

(4) Oversold Bounce, Short-Term Recovery

If a short-term positive catalyst emerges, such as the Federal Reserve signaling a dovish stance or large institutions announcing major BTC purchases, BTC could experience an oversold bounce, rallying back to $85,000 or even $90,000.

Key Driving Factors:

• Short-term positive catalysts
• Market sentiment recovery
• Increased trading volume

Conclusion

BTC is currently in a critical adjustment phase, with its price movement influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. stock market trends, macroeconomic conditions, and overall market sentiment.

In the short term, BTC is likely to continue its range-bound consolidation, awaiting further market clarity. However, in the medium to long term, the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies is still progressing, and BTC remains a strong candidate for becoming a global reserve asset.

Investors should closely monitor market developments, pay attention to key support and resistance levels, and formulate appropriate trading strategies accordingly.

Note: This article provides an analysis of BTC’s price movement based on current market conditions and does not constitute investment advice.