Bitcoin ETF may fail to spark BTC price breakout above $48K — Analysis

Bitcoin may stay rangebound even once the drama surrounding the ETF passes, according to the latest BTC price debate.

Bitcoin (BTC) seems unlikely to produce a snap bull market response to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) analysis warns.

In a market update on Jan. 10, trading firm QCP Capital acknowledged a lack of upside BTC price volatility.

Bitcoin “unable” to crack resistance

Bitcoin saw whipsaw price moves overnight as a hacker published a false official approval of the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.

Appearing on the SEC’s X (formerly Twitter) account, the post was the result of a so-called SIM swap attack, representatives from the platform subsequently revealed.

“We can also confirm that the account did not have two-factor authentication enabled at the time the account was compromised,” they added.

We can confirm that the account @SECGov was compromised and we have completed a preliminary investigation. Based on our investigation, the compromise was not due to any breach of X’s systems, but rather due to an unidentified individual obtaining control over a phone number…

— Safety (@Safety) January 10, 2024

During the attack and subsequent retraction of the approval by the SEC, BTC/USD managed to head closer to $48,000, but no further.

For QCP Capital, this has wider implications — even the official go-ahead may not give Bitcoin bulls the kind of response that they are hoping for.

“The initial reaction to the ‘approval’ was muted with BTC being unable to trade out of the resistance area,” it told Telegram subscribers.

“We take this as a warning sign that an approval is mostly priced in and there may not be a huge rally post the approval.”

QCP added that given the Jan. 10 deadline for approving one ETF application, ARK Invest, some form of closure should still come.

“The chances of an announcement tonight are high given Ark21’s deadline expires today and the SEC has historically approved all ETFs at once,” it concluded.

Bullish BTC price takes become muted

As Cointelegraph reported, $48,000 has become the go-to consensus level among Bitcoin traders when it comes to a local top.

Related: MicroStrategy is already up nearly $1B from Bitcoin in 2024

What happens after that is a matter of debate; some see further sideways BTC price action, while more bearish takes demand a significant correction toward $35,000 or even lower.

Among the most vocal downside predictions is that of notorious trader Il Capo of Crypto, who still sees a future retreat to $12,000 for Bitcoin.

BTC/USD traded near $45,600 at the time of writing prior to the Jan. 10 Wall Street open, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.