Is it time for Avalanche (AVAX) price to turn bullish?

Avalanche price gained 16%+ in the last week, but are positive media headlines enough to sustain the AVAX rally?

After spending nearly six months in a downtrend, AVAX price looks to be in the early stages of a trend reversal. On Aug. 5, it traded at $17.29, its lowest price in nine months. Over the past two weeks, the altcoin has reversed course with a 45% gain to $25.25. 

While AVAX’s flash crash under $18 was mirrored by most altcoins which also sharply sold off during Bitcoin’s (BTC) Aug. 18 correction to $49,500, AVAX has been a laggard versus the wider market since topping out at $65 on March. 18. 

Positive news could be partially responsible for the recent uptick in the AVAX price. This week, AVAX investors zoomed in on the Avalanche token unlock schedule and noted that a sharp reduction in the number of token unlock events occurs after the end of 2024. Many investors believe that token unlocks generate sell pressure and deter the various types of long-term ecosystem development that support value accretion to the token. 

After 2024 only #Avalanche Foundation will unlock tokens. All other unlocks will be done.

On-chain unlocks are much more transparent than other foundations random token sales#AVAX Foundation unlocks have set dates and is on-chain, it’s predictable and everyone can plan for it.… pic.twitter.com/DtsJnH3ElC

— REKTBuildr 🔺🔺🔺 (@rektbuildr) February 22, 2024

On Aug. 22, asset manager Grayscale Investments also announced the launch of a new investment fund for AVAX, the “Grayscale Avalanche Trust,” which gives investors exposure to the networks’ growing ecosystem. 

On the same day, global asset management firm Franklin Templeton also expanded its Franklin Onchain US Government Money Fund to the Avalanche network. As reported by Cointelegraph, “The fund, which launched in 2021, allows institutional investors access to Franklin Templeton’s blockchain-integrated record-keeping system, Benji Investments.”

While the token unlocks and Grayscale Investments and Franklin Templeton news are not necessarily fundamentals-based developments directly related to AVAX, the boost in positive sentiment could be influencing investors’ feelings about the altcoin’s price prospects. 

Related: Franklin Templeton expands blockchain fund to Avalanche network

From the price action perspective, AVAX’s price surge is aligned with the Grayscale announcement and an uptick in liquidations occurred as its funding rate briefly turned positive. 

What is important to watch for is a sustained uptick in spot buying volumes, especially given the fact that cryptocurrencies are notoriously known for having their prices driven by news events, partnership announcements, and mainnet upgrades. As shown below, this type of hopium and hype creation is a process crypto influencers and industry personnel are well familiar with. 

This week, 3 years ago, Avalanche Rush was announced. It was the most exciting and innovative incentive programs at the time.

Sequel? pic.twitter.com/FDWkQLb8P5

— Luigi D’Onorio DeMeo 🔺 (@luigidemeo) August 21, 2024

If spot buying volumes sustain or if there’s a notable increase in margined long positions, AVAX could tap into the topside liquidity above the $25 to $27 resistance cluster (as shown by the volume profile and aggregate order book) to chase prices in the $28 to $33 range.