Bitcoin headed for ‘screwy price action’ after 64% surge in first quarter

Bitcoin recorded its third-strongest quarter over the past three years in Q1, but analysts say the meteoric rise could add to a choppy year ahead for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) recorded one of its strongest quarters in the past three years in Q1, but analysts warn this could lead to significant volatility in the lead-up to the Bitcoin halving.

“Be prepared for some screwy price action as we head into the halving,” crypto analyst Phoenix Desmond told his 11,700 X followers in a post on April 3.

Bitcoin experienced a 64% price increase during the first quarter of 2024 — Jan. 1 to March 31 — its third-best quarter over the past three years, as per Kaiko Research data.

At the beginning of the quarter, it stood at $44,172 on Jan. 1, and by the quarter’s end, it had reached $71,255.

However, Desmond argues that the consistent pattern of outperforming price performance in weekly and monthly closings signals unprecedented market conditions.

“Never before have we seen such a strong weekly, monthly, and quarterly close above previous ATH only to retrace so far so fast,” Desmond declared.

In the last two weekly closes, on March 17 and March 31, Bitcoin surged by 6.09%, climbing from $67,234 to $71,333, as per Yahoo Finance data.

The Bitcoin halving is just 16 days away — set to happen on April 20 — and is stirring speculation it could trigger further upward movement in the second quarter of 2024, due to the expected supply shock.

However, investor sentiment regarding the short-term direction of Bitcoin’s price seems to be rather neutral.

Over the past 24 hours, liquidations on both short and long positions remained fairly balanced, at $16.27 million and $16.77 million respectively, as per CoinGlass data.

If Bitcoin’s price rises by just 1.5% to $66,687, approximately $57.08 million will be liquidated.

If it goes the other way, dropping by just 1% to $65,013, $35.14 million will be liquidated.

Related: Bitcoin is hedge against ‘horrible’ gov’t fiscal policy — Cathie Wood

Popular pseudonymous crypto analyst Rekt Capital believes that Bitcoin may not follow the same trajectory as it did in the previous quarter, and at best, it could see resistance levels close to the all-time highs of the first quarter.

“BTC may consolidate between $60k & $70k for the coming weeks going into the Halving and beyond,” Rekt Capital said in a March 3 post on X.

While the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 11 by several of the world’s largest asset management firms has heightened interest and speculation around Bitcoin’s price, some foresee a potential narrative shift.

“Most likely not Bitcoin,” founder of MN trading consultancy Michael van de Poppe told his 710,600 X followers in a post on April 4:

“Pre-Halving Bitcoin interest, Spot ETF launch causing additional liquidity. This is slowing down, back to normal price levels, after which a new narrative is likely going to surge.”