Bitcoin gains just 0.6% in January amid new sub-$40K BTC price target

BTC price expectations offer little optimism for February, with Bitcoin almost coming full circle for the first month of 2024.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to recover losses on Feb. 1 after the monthly close turned sour for BTC price action.

Bitcoin shakes off ETF month with modest upside

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked BTC/USD as it bounced around $1,000 off lows of $41,860 on Bitstamp.

These immediately followed the January candle close, leaving Bitcoin just 0.6% higher for the first month of 2024.

Bulls faced continued struggles to reclaim lost ground after a 20% dive from two-year highs of $49,000, and as February began, calls for new lows remained.

In an update to subscribers on X (formerly Twitter), trading resource Material Indicators flagged new downside tips from its proprietary trading tools.

“Monthly charts doesn’t necessarily mean price will make a lower low this month, but it does indicate that price will not make a new high this month unless the new #TradingSignals invalidate,” part of one post stated.

“That said, I’d be surprised if we didn’t at least see Bitcoin test support at the local low ~$38.5k before the end of the month.”

New ⬇️ signals from Trend Precognition on the #BTC and #ETH Monthly charts doesn’t necessarily mean price will make a lower low this month, but it does indicate that price will not make a new high this month unless the new #TradingSignals invalidate. That said, I’d be surprised… https://t.co/1II6881Bij

— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) February 1, 2024

$38,500 marks January’s low at the trough of the 20% BTC price pullback.

As Cointelegraph reported, matters were not helped by macroeconomic developments on Jan. 31.

The United States Federal Reserve, while holding interest rates in line with expectations, nonetheless sought to stem bets of rate cuts in the first half of the year. That move is keenly anticipated by risk-asset traders as monetary easing boosts liquidity conditions.

“In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” an official press release read.

“The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a cut at the Fed’s March meeting at 45% at the time of writing.

GBTC outflows stabilize around 6,000 BTC

The first day of February, meanwhile, saw around 6,200 BTC in outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), per live data from crypto intelligence firm Arkham.

Related: BTC price shows $60K ‘potential’ as MVRV metric copies Bitcoin bull cycles

These were in line with recent days, but still considerably below the daily peak of 25,000 BTC seen since its conversion to a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Today’s #Bitcoin Sent to out by $GBTC/Grayscale comes out to be ~6.2K $BTC or ~$270M worth.

Slightly down from yesterday. This one took a while to come in as there was no block mined for nearly an entire hour. https://t.co/zIrTRHOLqp pic.twitter.com/o7pfU02lzQ

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) February 1, 2024

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of nearly $200 million for Jan. 31, data from sources, including Bloomberg Intelligence, confirms.

“Total net inflows of $1.46 billion since launch,” analyst James Seyffart added in part of a commentary while uploading the data to X.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.