JPMorgan says GBTC sell-off ‘behind us’ as ETFs post record net outflow

Analysts from JPMorgan believe the majority of “profit taking” from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust is now likely over, while U.S. Bitcoin funds have just recorded their biggest day of net outflows.

Investors are likely done with the bulk of profit-taking from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which could ease pressure on the price of Bitcoin (BTC), according to JPMorgan analysts.

It comes as daily net outflows from United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hit a record high on its ninth day of trading.

“GBTC profit taking has largely happened already,” said the analysts headed by market strategy managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in a Jan. 25 market report. “This would imply that most of the downward pressure on Bitcoin from that channel should be largely behind us.”

Grayscale’s fund has traded at a discount to its net asset value since early 2021 and the analysts pinned the fund’s $4.3 billion outflows since its conversion to an ETF on Jan. 11 as “profit-taking on previous GBTC investments” and the reason for Bitcoin’s nearly 20% price drop to now trade under $40,000 since the launch of multiple U.S. Bitcoin ETFs.

JPMorgan’s note comes after the ten approved spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $158 million on Jan. 24, the largest net outflow day since launch, per BitMEX research data shared on social media platform X on Jan. 25.

Here is the chart for day 9, with all data out

Day 9 was pretty weak for Blackrock, with +$66m

Fidelity performed well: +$126m pic.twitter.com/2VzTpZWOKx

— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) January 25, 2024

Grayscale’s ETF saw $429 million in outflows on Jan. 24, while the most recent BitMEX data for Jan. 25 shows outflows dropped to $394 million — its second-lowest outflow day on record.

Related: SEC institutes proceedings on Grayscale spot Ether ETF, pushing deadline

Data for Jan. 24 compiled by X account CC15Capital shows Bitcoin ETF holdings held by all ten funds dropped on the day by 4,610 BTC, worth nearly $184 million.

✅ FINAL Update for 1/24 #Bitcoin   Holdings of ETFs$GBTC posted the official data & the actual # was very close to my estimate (again)

Ready for 1/25 data $IBIT $FBTC $ARKB $BITB $BRRR $BTCO $HODL $EZBC $BTCW $DEFI $GBTC pic.twitter.com/v9mgg8lZzW

— CC15Capital (@Capital15C) January 25, 2024

Inflows to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan. 24 were the lowest since launch, with only $66.2 million on the day, while it increased its Bitcoin stash by 1,663 BTC. In total, IBIT currently holds nearly 45,700 and has just over $1.8 billion in assets under management.

Big Questions: How can Bitcoin payments stage a comeback?