While Global Financial Markets Feast, the Crypto Market Remains in “Winter”

#CryptoMarket #FinancialMarket

From 2025 until now, have you made money in the crypto market? It’s a painful question — but a real one.

According to market data gathered by the SuperEx Research Institute, whether it’s stocks, gold, or silver, nearly all other major asset classes have outperformed crypto in 2025.

Let’s look at the numbers:

2025 Other Markets: Gold surged over 60%, silver soared 210.9%, and the Russell 2000 Index gained 12.8%
2025 Crypto Market: BTC dropped 13.6%, ETH fell 6.8%, and SOL plummeted 55.6%

As we enter early 2026, the data remains bleak: On January 20, both gold and silver hit new highs again. The Russell 2000 Index outperformed the S&P 500 for 11 straight days. In contrast, Bitcoin closed January 21 with six consecutive red candles, falling from $98,000 to below $90,000.

Field research within the crypto community reveals a spreading sense of disappointment, especially among retail investors — a significant portion have already left crypto and moved into other financial markets.

Why Is Bitcoin So Weak?

1. Bitcoin’s Role as a Leading Indicator

As a global risk asset and a liquidity bellwether, Bitcoin’s stagnation may signal weakening momentum for other markets.

In traditional finance, leading indicators often matter more than lagging results. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has carved out a clear position: It’s not the asset that reacts last — it’s the one that perceives liquidity shifts first.

From 2017 to 2020 to 2021, Bitcoin consistently began its rally ahead of broader global risk-on cycles. Likewise, it tends to stall or decline before major macro turning points.

In 2025, what’s most alarming isn’t just BTC’s price drop — it’s the structural shift in its price behavior:

Lack of sustained upside
Every rebound quickly meets sell pressure
Volume spikes at highs, but price fails to break out

This “volume without price movement” pattern has appeared multiple times in history, and it often signals one thing: The market’s expectations for risk asset upside are declining.

In other words, Bitcoin isn’t “weak on its own” — it’s leading the broader risk asset complex in signaling trouble. When a hyper-financialized, global, 24/7 traded asset like BTC fails to attract incremental capital, it suggests the entire market is shifting into defense mode.

2. Global Liquidity Tightening

Bottom line: The Fed’s QT continues, and the Bank of Japan is hiking rates — both are suppressing Bitcoin prices.

Many investors often attribute crypto market performance to narratives, policies, or isolated events. But zooming out, liquidity remains the dominant long-term driver of Bitcoin.

The global macro environment in 2025 has been systemically unfavorable to BTC.

First, although the Fed has signaled potential pivots multiple times, quantitative tightening hasn’t truly ended. Dollar liquidity is still being withdrawn.

This means: The total amount of “freely circulating capital” in the system is shrinking — And Bitcoin is one of the most liquidity-sensitive assets in the world.

Second, the Bank of Japan’s policy shift has been massively underestimated: For years, ultra-low yen rates have supported one of the world’s largest carry trade flows — pouring into U.S. equities, crypto, and other risk assets.

As Japan enters a rate hike cycle, these funds are now returning home — essentially a global-scale liquidity drain.

In this environment, Bitcoin isn’t devoid of buyers — It’s just missing the kind of capital that drives sustainable trend expansion.

3. Geopolitical Uncertainty

Bottom line: Aggressive Trump-era policies have intensified both domestic and international tensions, causing risk-off capital flows — risk assets like BTC are under pressure.

A defining theme of global finance in 2025: Uncertainty.

The Trump administration’s approach has amplified this:

Frequent trade war escalations
Aggressive industrial policies
Major volatility in foreign relations

Against this backdrop, capital behavior has changed: When uncertainty rises, markets don’t “cut evenly” — they re-tier risk quickly:

High-certainty assets are held or increased
Medium-risk assets face selective rotation
High-volatility, narrative-driven assets are sold off first

In this cycle, crypto — especially Bitcoin — remains categorized as a third-tier asset by most institutions. This is not a value judgment — it’s a pragmatic risk management decision.

Even firms bullish on BTC long-term are reducing allocations during short-term macro instability.

Why Are Other Assets Rising?

1. Gold & Silver: Not a Speculative Frenzy, but Systemic Repricing

The 2025 gold and silver rally wasn’t driven by hype — it was a “forced” reallocation of capital.

Gold’s core drivers are clear:

Rising global political risk
Persistent pressure on sovereign credit
Central banks globally increasing gold reserves

Gold has returned to center stage not just as a safe haven, but as a long-term credit hedge.

Silver’s rally is more complex — It’s both a precious metal and a key industrial input in clean energy and electronics.

With markets simultaneously betting on:

Sticky inflation
Industrial recovery
Geopolitical instability

— Silver becomes the higher-leverage expression.

2. U.S. Equities: The “Strength” Lies in Capital Concentration

The fact that the Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500 doesn’t mean we’re in a broad equity bull market. On the contrary, it reflects extreme capital selectivity.

Winning sectors share key traits:

Clear policy direction
Defined profit models
Predictable cash flow

This structural market behavior stands in sharp contrast to the narrative-driven and volatile state of crypto.

What’s Next for the Crypto Market?

Given the current backdrop, crypto is likely entering a prolonged “grinding phase.”

No sharp collapse
But also no clear breakout trends

Market characteristics may include:

Extended sideways consolidation
Short-lived narratives
Extremely fast sector rotation

What truly matters isn’t price, but three potential structural signals:

Will global liquidity clearly pivot?
Will macro uncertainty ease — even temporarily?
Will a genuinely demand-driven new growth point emerge inside crypto?

Until then, patience matters more than prediction.

Final Thoughts

Crypto in 2025 feels cold — But cold doesn’t mean dead.

It’s more like a phase of:

Emotion being flushed out
Bubbles being compressed
Narratives being forced back to reality

History repeatedly shows: The best opportunities emerge in cycles like these — but they never ring the bell in advance.

The real question is never:“When will the market give you a chance to make money?”

But rather: “When opportunity quietly reappears — will you still be here?”